India to be a developed country


If India is to be a developed country in the world,

i.every able bodied person should be assured of employment;

ii.everyone should have enough to eat; not only cereals, but also vegetables, fruits, meat, milk, eggs, as also tea, coffee and other beverages and there should be no beggars;

iii.everyone should have sufficient clothing, spacious and comfortable houses with all the required furniture and furnishing, adequate and suitable means of transport and also all the gadgets which make life easy;

iv.literacy rate should be 100%;

v.people should enjoy leisure;

vi.people should not quarrel over petty things;

vii.arts and literature should flourish;

viii.there should be no distinction between one person and another person

ix. everyoe should likes the other

x.people should not quarrel over petty things;

xi.crime rate should be very low;

xii.its citizens should be proud of their country

xiii.there should be no secessionist demands;

xiv. there should be no communal and caste conflicts;

xv.there should be adequate social security measures;

xvi.its citizens are respected all over the world;

xvii.Indian companies should export technology as well as capital to other countries in large measure;

xviii.its volume of trade should be very high and consequenly it is in a position to influence the world trade policies;

xix.its citizens are knownfor inventions and are among the largest scientific and technological awar winners;

xx.its currency should be strong and freely convertible and should be the most sought after currency should be among those that decide the course of events in the world

Performance of India and Vietnam in foreign trade sector


The exports of Vietnam increased from US$ 15 billion 2001 to $132 billion in 2013 i.e. by about 9 times during the 12 years and to $150 billion in 2014 i.e. by  10 times in 13 years. On the other hand  exports from India increased from $44 billion in 2001-2002 to $ 313 billion in 2013-14 i.e only by about 7 times. While in 2001, India’s exports were about 3 times that of Vietnam, in 2013, it is only about 2.5 times.

As regards imports, Vietnam’s imports increased from $16.2 billion in 2001 to $131 billion in 2013 i.e by about 7 times and in 2014 to $148 billion i.e. by about 9 times in 13 years. Imports have grown at a lower rate than those of exports. But imports into India increased from $51 billion in 2001-02 to  $450 billion in 2013-14 i.e by about  9 times.Imports have grown at a higher rate than exports.

While trade balance in Vietnam became surplus of $0.9 in 2013 from deficit of $1.2 billion in 2001, In India trade balance grew from a deficit of $7.6 billion in2001-02 to trade deficit of $137 billion in 2013-14.

The above figures show that on the foreign trade front, India’s performance is poor compared to that of Vietnam.

Guyana-India Economic Co-operation


Gold is the main item of export for Guyana contributing over 40% to total exports. India is a very large importer of gold. India should explore possibilities of import of gold directly from Guyana , if necessary by undertaking of refining etc.

The second major item of export of Guyana is Rice. Guyana has large uncultivated but cultivable land. Indian companies can lease land for cultivation of Paddy, set up rice mills and increase exports of rice from Guyana. Guyana’s trade deficit can be wiped out.Indian companies can earn good profits as Guyana has fertile land and abundant rainfall.

Sugar is the fourth largest item of Guyana’s exports. Here also Indian companies can set up sugar mills and also lease land for cultivating sugarcane for feeding the mills. With increased sugar production, there will be increase in the production of molasses which can feed Rum factories. Guyana’s Rum is famous and Indian companies can produce and export Rum from Guyana.

Guyana also produces and exports rough diamonds and India is a large importer of this item. India can directly import diamond from Guyana .India can also explore possibilities of diamond exploration.

Some of the items which Guyana can import from India are: motor vehicles , including cars, sugar machinery, agricultural machinery like tractors, harvesters etc.Guyana consumes wheat but does not produce the same. Guyana can import wheat/wheat flour from India. The quantity will not be huge as the total population of Guyana is less than one million.

There are also possibilities for cooperation between the two countries in laying railway lines in Guyana and construction of bridges across rivers

Agriculture- Bangladesh performs better than India


According to FAO, India has arable land of 157 million hectares(ha). It has a population of about 1250 million people. The density of population per ha of arable land is about 8 persons.

Bangladesh has arable land of 7.7.million ha and a population of about 155 million. The density of population per ha of arable land is about 20 persons i.e. about 2.5times that of India.

Bangladesh annually produces about 51 million MT of food grains, mostly paddy(not rice).i.e. about 330kg per head per year while India annually produces about 280 million MT(paddy taken into account- not rice)i.e. only about 225kg per head per year. It is strange that even with low per capita production India occasionally exports food grains while Bangladesh imports food grains.

Bangladesh receives rainfall of about 265 cm annually while India receives only about 110 cm of rainfall. But low production of grains in India is not due to shortage of water,It is due to under utilization of water as can be seen from the very large quantity of river water joining the sea in various parts of India.There shold be more lakes and dams in India and river and rain water should be drained in these lakes and dams .

Bangladesh takes two/three crops in a years on larger proportion of land than India. Average paddy yield in Bangladesh is also high at around 4.3 MT/ha while in India it is about 3.5 MT/ha. Thus while on an ha of arable land Bangladesh produces about 6.5 MT of food grains, India produces only about 1.8 MT(India produces coarse grains on rain fed areas where the yield is very low and this brings down annual production on an ha of land.

India needs to spend more time and energy on finding ways for better utilization of rain/river water -by linking rivers with rivers, rivers with lakes, recharging ground water etc.

Rate of exchange between dollar and rupee


The Finance Minister is reported to have said that the correct rate of exchange between US$ and Indian Rupee is US$1= Rs.59 or Rs.60. This does not appear to be correct.

The wages for an hour of an unskilled worker on an average is about US$ 8/- in United States.In India it is about Rs.50/’ In this case US$ 8= Rs.50 or 1 dollar is equal to about Rs. 6.25. A cup of coffee in Food Courts on average costs about US$1.00/- In similar establishments in India, it is about Rs.30/- In this case 1 US dollar is equal to Rs.30/- Average price of 1 litre of milk in US is about 1 dollar. In India, it is about Rs.30. In this case also 1 dollar is equal to only Rs.30/- Of course in manuufactured goods, 1 dollar may be equal to Rs.40 or more. Taking all the products and services (GDP) in India, IMF/World Bsnk etc.estimated in 2012,India’s GDP to be around 5 trillion dollar by Purchasing Power Parity method and nearly 2 trillion dollars by rate of exchange method The rate of exchange in 2012 wad about Rs.50 per dollar. This shows that the real parity between dollar and rupee in 2012 should have been only Rs.20/dollar. in 2013 it could be about Rs.30/-.

Promoting consumption of milk in India and other countries


India is the largest producers of milk in the world with production of about 120 million tons (2011). The per capita production comes to only about 100kg per year. USA, the second largest producer of milk with a production of around 90 million tonnes has a per capita production of about 300 kgs while countries like Germany and France produce about 400 kg per head per year.

Milk is one of the few items in which India has higher per capita production than China whose per capita production is only about 30kg. India with a very large vegetarian population should increase per capita consumption considerably. However, with low purchasing power of people, India may become surplus in milk within a few years if the present rate of increase in production is maintained.

India and Pakistan are the major producers of buffalo milk. Production of goat milk is negligible in the world.

India needs to take steps to increase consumption of milk because of its nutritional value. There should be increased use of milk and milk products not only in sweets but also in other dishes. Use of milk and milk products should be promoted in countries like China and Vietnam to whom India could export. Once the Chinese and Vietnamese get used to sweets, there will be huge demand for milk and milk products.

Declining position of India in Cashew production and exports.


Till late 1990s, India was the largest producer of raw cashew nuts(cashew nuts with shell) and largest exporter of processed cashew nuts in the world. Roasted Cashew nuts also used to be an important item of export from India.However India is now not so prominent in the world as an exporter.While India’s production of raw cashew went up only by about 50% from 420,000 MT in 1996 to 675,000 MT in 2011,Vietnam’s production increased by about 500% from 237000 MT to 12,72,000 MT during this period making Vietnam the largest producer in the world. Nigeria’s production went up by about 700% from 110,000 MT to 813000 MT, making Nigeria, the second largest producer behind Vietnam and ahead of India.India thus is only the third largest producer in the world.

The low increase in production in India is due to low yield. During the 15 year period from 1996 to 2011, in India the yield increased only marginally from 0.66MT per hectare, while in Nigeria it went up by about 400% from 0.63MT to 2.46 MT.The yield in Vietnam increased from 2.23MT to 3.84MT.

In India as much as 0.95 million hectare of land is under cashew while Vietnam and Nigeria each have only about 0.33 million ha under cashew.

In 2001, India was the largest exporter of roasted cashew nuts with exporters of about 90,000 MT when Vietnam’s exports were only 44000 MT. But in 2011, India’s exports were almost at the same level at 93,000 MT while Vietnam’s exports went up by 4 times to 195,000 MT.

Cashew tree starts yielding from about 3rd year and its life is about 35-40 years.
India should consider measures to increase yield by encouraging farmers to grow high yielding dwarf varieties, consider giving grants and subsidies and/or procuring raw cashew nuts at a much higher price which would offset effect of increased wages of workers as also services like transport etc.

India should also coordinate with other large producing/exporting countries like Vietnam and Nigeria to promote consumption of cashew nuts in the world particularly in developed importing countries, to evolve high-yielding varieties,exchange of information, exchange of agricultural and industrial experts etc.